紐時賞析／川普上任後 國際赴美旅遊崩盤是真的嗎？

Has International Travel to the U.S. Really Collapsed?

國際赴美旅遊崩盤是真的嗎？

Amid a global trade war, canceled visas and tourists detained at the border, the signals from the United States have been anything but inviting to potential visitors.

全球貿易戰、取消簽證和觀光客在邊境被拘留發生之際，美國所發出的信號對潛在遊客而言一點也不誘人。

Many news outlets have reported extraordinary declines in international visitors during the new Trump administration, especially from Europe.

許多新聞媒體報導，新任川普政府執政期間，國際遊客人數急劇下降，特別是來自歐洲的遊客。

But despite some ominous signs, a close look at the data shows that travel to the United States is largely holding up — at least so far.

但儘管出現一些不祥跡象，仔細觀察數據顯示，前往美國美國的旅遊人次很大程度上保持穩定—至少目前為止是如此。

Nearly as many foreign travelers have arrived at American airports this year as during the same period last year, according to an analysis by The New York Times of entry data collected from every international airport in the country.

紐約時報針對從全美國際機場收集到的入境數據分析顯示，今年飛抵美國的外國旅客人次幾乎和去年同期一樣多。

International arrivals did drop more than 10% in March compared with last year, but this was largely because Easter fell unusually late this year, pushing back a popular travel window for European tourists. More recent figures from April show that travel over the holiday looked similar to previous years.

今年3月國際旅客人次和去年同期相比確實減少10%，但這主要是因為今年復活節來得異常晚，推遲歐洲觀光客熱門旅遊窗口。4月最新數據顯示，假期期間的旅遊狀況和去年同期類似。

Visitors haven’t stopped booking summer vacations in the United States, either, with one major exception.

遊客們也沒有停止預訂前往美國的暑假行程，但有個明顯例外。

Canadians, angered by U.S. tariffs and Trump administration talk of turning their country into a 51st state, really do appear to be boycotting the United States. Ticket sales for travel in summer are down 21% compared with last year.

加拿大人對於美國關稅，及川普政府談到將他們的國家變成第51州的說法感到憤怒，他們似乎真的在抵制美國。夏季旅遊機票的銷售額比去年同期下滑21%。

The decline in Canadian travelers, who make up roughly a quarter of all foreign visitors, is enough by itself to threaten tourism-oriented businesses in Florida, New York, Maine and other popular destinations.

加拿大遊客占所有外國遊客的約四分之一，光是這點就足以威脅佛州、紐約、緬因州和其他熱門觀光勝地的相關產業。

But sales of tickets for summer travel from the rest of the world are down only 2% compared with the same period last year, according to data on the 25 most popular routes from the Airlines Reporting Corp., whose data covers about two-thirds of global airline ticket sales.

但ARC航空報告公司的25條熱門航線數據顯示，從世界其他地區到美國的夏季機票銷售額比去年同期僅下降2%。該公司數據涵蓋全球約三分之二的銷售。

Any decline is worrisome for the travel industry, and the situation could worsen if economies are further weakened by the trade war or if anti-American sentiment rises. There is extraordinary uncertainty among travel analysts about whether visitors will continue to come in the same numbers — and if so, for how long.

對旅遊業而言，任何下降都是令人擔憂的，且若貿易戰導致經濟進一步疲弱，或反美情緒升高，情勢可能更為惡化。旅遊分析師普遍感到極度不確定，不知道訪客是否會繼續以同樣的數量來美國—若會，那麼會持續多久？

Part of the explanation for the relatively unchanged arrival figures so far may lie in the nature of the travel business. Many international trips are booked months in advance, and can be hard to cancel, and so even a traveler who feels antagonized by U.S. policies may in the end get on a plane anyway.

截至目前為止，入境數據仍大致持平，部分原因可能與旅遊產業的特性有關。許多國際旅程都是提前數月預訂，而且不容易取消，所以即便旅客對美國政策覺得反感，最終可能還是會登機赴美。

文／Josh Holder, Niraj Chokshi and Samuel Granados 譯／羅方妤