紐時賞析／「防守能拿NBA總冠軍」 這句話還管用嗎？

Defense Wins Championships. Is That Still True?

防守能拿NBA總冠軍的道理 仍管用？

Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison has come to rely on an old basketball chestnut as a catchall explainer for why he made the now-infamous Luka Dončić trade.

達拉斯獨行俠隊總管哈里森一直仰賴一句籃球老生常談，概括解釋為何他交易陣中球星唐西奇，落得聲名狼藉。

“Defense wins championships,” Harrison said lately. “And we’re going to hang our hat on defense.”

哈里森日前表示：「防守贏得冠軍。我們依靠防守取勝。」

It’s an often-used expression around basketball. But is it right anymore?

這是籃球界常用的說法。但現在還正確嗎？

Over the past 20 NBA seasons, there has been a slight change in the makeup of championship teams. From 2004-05 through 2014-15, eight of the 11 title teams had a defense that was ranked higher than its offense. But since 2015-16, just two of the eight champions have had a higher-ranked defense than offense, with one team finishing fifth in both categories.

在過去20個美國職籃賽季，冠軍球隊的組成出現一些細微的變化。自2004-05賽季至2014-15賽季，11支冠軍隊伍中有8支，其防守排名高於進攻排名。但自2015-16賽季起，8支冠軍隊伍中僅2支防守排名高於進攻，另有1支隊伍防守和進攻均排名第5。

Every title-winning team from 2005 through 2015 had a top-10 defense; the average rank in defensive rating for teams in their winning seasons was 4.5. That has changed slightly over the past decade: The Golden State Warriors won a ring in 2018 with the 11th-best defense, and the Denver Nuggets won two years ago with the No. 15 defense in the league. The average rank in defensive rating for title teams since 2016 was 6.6.

2005至2015年的冠軍隊伍防守排名都位居前10名；在這些球隊的奪冠賽季，防守效率排名平均是4.5名。不過，狀況在過去10年間略有改變：金州勇士在2018年以防守排名第11名奪得總冠軍，丹佛金塊兩年前以防守排名第15名贏得總冠軍。自2016年以來，冠軍隊伍的防守效率平均排名則是第6.6名。

At the same time, having an elite offense has seemed to become more important to winning a title. Out of the past nine champions, only two teams did not have a top-five offense (the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers and the 2022 Warriors). From 2005 to 2015, five of 11 champions had a top-five offense, while seven had a top-five defense. Just four of the past nine champions have had a top-five defense. Even if we expand the focus a little bit, the NBA’s final four teams have had a higher-ranked offense, on average, than defense in five of the past seven seasons.

同時，擁有菁英級別進攻能力對於贏得總冠軍似乎變得更重要。在過去9支冠軍隊伍中，僅2支隊伍進攻排名沒進入前5名，分別是2020年的洛杉磯湖人和2022年的勇士。自2005至2015年，11支冠軍隊伍有5支進攻排名前5名，而有7支隊伍防守排名前5名。 過去9支冠軍隊伍僅4支防守排名前5名。即使我們稍微擴大關注範圍，在過去7個賽季中有5個賽季，美國職籃4支進入決賽的隊伍，平均進攻排名高於防守。

The three leading title favorites this season — the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers — each features a defense in the top eight, and the Thunder have the most dominant defense the NBA has seen in a long time.

本賽季三大奪冠熱門球隊—奧克拉荷馬雷霆隊、波士頓塞爾蒂克隊和克里夫蘭騎士隊，防守均名列前8，而雷霆的防守長久以來在NBA最具主導性。

But the Thunder, the Celtics and the Cavaliers also own the NBA’s top-three offenses. Only the Sacramento Kings had a top-12 offense this season and did not win at least 48 games. None of the NBA’s 14 worst offenses this season posted a winning record; the Nuggets and Lakers finished with 50 wins and a bottom-14 defense. Last season, every team except for the Atlanta Hawks that finished with an offense in the top 17 won at least 46 games.

但雷霆、塞爾蒂克和騎士也是NBA進攻排名前3名的球隊。只有沙加緬度國王隊本季進攻排名前12名，而贏不到48場。本季14支進攻最差的NBA球隊，沒有一支勝率超過50%；而金塊和湖人本季最終取得50勝，但防守排名位居倒數14名。在上個賽季，除了亞特蘭大老鷹隊，進攻排名前17名的隊伍最終都至少取得46勝。

The reality is that a team usually needs a great offense and a great defense to win a championship, not one or the other.

現實情況是一支隊伍通常攻守兩端都得優異過人，才能贏得總冠軍，缺一不可。

文／Mike Vorkunov 譯／羅方妤